FALL 2018 OC Housing Update & 2019 Forecast
A Slowing Market: The Expected Market Time is continuing to rise rapidly.
Steven Thomas – Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences, B.A.
The Orange County housing market is no longer instantaneous. It’s kind of like fishing. 1 out of every 4 homes will not sell because of various reasons. When supply increases and demand drops at the same exact time, the market rapidly slows; and, that is precisely what occurred from May through September of 2018.
According to the latest Orange County Housing Report, the average days for an Orange County home to sit on the market is – 110 days. For sellers, this means bracing for a competitive market with a process that could last for months. Time is money, so this isn’t the most reassuring news.
This comprehensive report details the latest market conditions in Orange County – and what the experts predict will occur with home values and sales in the next 6-12 months.
The Orange County housing market is continuing to slow, bucking long-term trends for housing in the Autumn.
Steven Thomas – Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences, B.A.Steven Thomas – Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences, B.A.
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory increased by 91 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 7,292. The inventory has still not reached a peak for 2018. Normally it peaks between July and August. Last year, there were 5,215 homes on the market, 2,077 fewer than today.
- So far this year, 14% fewer homes have come on the market below $500,000 compared to last year, and there have been 26% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below$500,000. This price range is slowly vanishing.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased in the past two-weeks by 76 pending sales, and now totals 1,974. Demand peaked in mid-May at 2,726 pending sales. Last year, there were 2,393 pending sales, 18% more than today.
- The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.5 million over the past two-weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is still a very slight Seller’s Market (less than 90 days) with an expected market time of 82 days. This range represents 43% of the active inventory and 58% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1million, the expected market time is 99 days, a Balanced Market (between 90 to120 days). This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25million, the expected market time is 124 days, just eclipsing the Buyers Market territory (over 120 days).
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 143 to 152 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 170 to 207 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and$4 million, the expected market time decreased from 384 to 368 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 354 to463 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 29% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
- The expected market time for all homes inOrange County increased from 105 to 110 days, a Balanced Market (between 90 to120 days). It was at 65 days last year.
- Distressed homes, both short sales, and foreclosures combined, made up only 1% of all listings and 1.5% of demand. There are only 22 foreclosures and 48 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 70 total distressed homes on the active market, down by 8 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 67 total distressed homes on the market, nearly identical to today.
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